Like the earlier times, one can see a plural political response in the Jammu region. The seats have been divided between the Congress, the NC, the BJP and the Panthers Party. It is difficult to see the communal polarisation, since the Muslim belt of the region has given as much of a plural response as the Hindu belt has. While in the two districts of Poonch and Rajouri the seats have been divided between the NC, the Congress and the PDP, in the Doda belt — comprising the three districts of Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban — it is the Congress which has registered its dominance, winning five of the six seats. The entry of the PDP is seen by many as an indication of the communalisation of the Muslim belt. Yet one cannot see Muslims in Rajouri and Poonch voting as a bloc for any party, divided as they are between the two identities — Gujjars and Paharis. Doda, meanwhile, is a story of development — it was the most backward and unattended area of the region, which was paid attention to by the Congress government, specifically by Ghulam Nabi Azad, who himself represented one of the constituencies within this belt.

If the BJP has succeeded in Jammu, it is not because of its communal agenda; it is because of many other factors, anti-incumbency working against the Congress being the most important one. The Congress faced problems also due to internal dissensions, wrong candidate choices, rebels and the lack of credible faces. Where it could field a credible candidate, as in Gandhi Nagar, it could win despite the BJP wave. It is a similar story of credible candidates in Kathua where an independent could win despite the constituency being a BJP stronghold.

... contd.