Opinion Arms across the Himalayas

In an apparent recognition of the need for greater communication,the latest white paper included for the first time a separate section on military confidence-building,highlighting defence consultations,joint training missions and exchanges between border units. China,the paper suggested,is pursuing such steps as “an effective way to maintain national security and development,and safeguard regional peace and stability.”

The rise of the Chinese military has been much faster than many were predicting just a year ago. After years of top-secret development,the J-20 — China’s first radar-evading jet fighter — was put through preliminary,but also very public,tests earlier this year in January just as US Defence Secretary Robert Gates was in Beijing to revise military ties. China’s nuclear deterrent,estimated at no more than 160 warheads,has been redeployed since 2008 onto mobile launchers and advanced submarines that are no longer sitting ducks. Multiple-warhead missiles are most likely to be the next phase.

At the same time,China has made significant gains towards fielding a missile system designed to sink a moving aircraft carrier from nearly 2,000 miles away. The “carrier-killer” missile and a new showpiece stealth fighter jet may not be a match for US systems,but they represent rapid advances for China’s home-grown technology and defence manufacturing. China also plans to launch upto five aircraft carriers in the coming years — though the white paper,although ostensibly aimed at making China’s military development more transparent,did not discuss the carrier project.

The paper,however,underlined China’s role in sending military ships to take an anti-piracy role in the Gulf of Aden where Chinese ships are working alongside those from NATO nations,Russia and India.

China,Taiwan and a number of Southeast Asian nations have been squabbling for years over territorial claims to the South China Sea. Then last July,amid heightening tensions in the waters,Secretary of State Hillary Clinton rallied with Southeast Asian nations to speak out against China when she suggested that the United States had a “national interest” in the area,and that China and other countries should abide by a 2002 agreement guaranteeing a resolution of the sovereignty disputes by “peaceful means.” This was as much to due to America’s desire to reclaim its receding strategic space in the region as it was due to pressure from regional states. Despite this,civilian surveillance ships managed to plant a Chinese flag in the southern part of the sea last year.

In November,Chinese Admiral Hu Yanlin suggested that “international anti-China forces led by America” had stirred up discord in the region. Not surprisingly,the white paper argues that while the security situation in Asia and the Pacific was generally stable,it was becoming “more intricate and volatile,” with no clear solutions for tension points like the divided Korean Peninsula and with the US increasing its involvement.

The document underscored the desire of the Chinese military to enhance defence linkages with

India but it also underlined the limits of such an engagement when it suggested the “multidimensional” nature of Sino-Pakistan military exchanges. While high-level military exchanges with China have now been resumed,the underlying reality remains that so long as underlying issues in the Sino-Indian relationship are not resolved,there is little likelihood of military relationship getting serious. This also applies to other states in the region and beyond with whom China is trying to enhance its defence linkages.

The latest white paper from Beijing says,“China pursues a national defence policy which is defensive in nature,” and “China will never seek hegemony,nor will it adopt the approach of military expansion now or in the future,no matter how its economy develops.” But the rest of the world will need more than mere words to take this assertion seriously.

Pant is the author of ‘The China Syndrome’