When thousands of voters lined up outside polling booths on November 17 in Bandipore and Sonawari constituencies, Kashmir’s overwhelming participation in elections came as a huge surprise. Since then, the Valley has kept its date with democracy surprising cynics and even some optimists. However, one thing is now clear: in a state where regional political discourse has always been dominant, the Congress is emerging as the lone political party which is in a win-win situation.

The high voter turnout has put a huge question mark over the traditional wisdom about elections in the state. The only undisputed prediction about the outcome is that Jammu and Kashmir’s new government will be a coalition and for the first time in the state’s recent history, the Congress is the only party which has come up as a natural and necessary ally for either of the two major regional parties — the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

In Kashmir, the contest is intense and bitter between these two parties. While the NC is happy about Budgam, Kupwara and Handwara districts, the PDP feels it is on a winning streak across South Kashmir and Baramulla district. The Srinagar city — a traditional NC bastion — too is witnessing a close fight in several of its constituencies. The Congress, meanwhile, is silently rejoicing in its strength in the border constituencies of Kashmir and expects victory in a few seats in South Kashmir as well.

The contest in Jammu province too is unpredictable. It is witnessing a return of Hindutva in its Hindu heartland. For the first time, Mayawati’s elephant too is making its presence felt. The fight for Rajouri, Poonch has been traditionally between the NC and Congress, but this time around the PDP — riding on Muslim sentiment and few influential candidates — has made serious inroads.

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