Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s public meeting at Badwani in Madhya Pradesh last Saturday was impressive in terms of the size of the gathering. However, even as the PM was giving an account of the money given to Madhya Pradesh under various Central schemes, the crowd was melting.

The same evening in Indore, BJP’s prime ministerial candidate L K Advani addressed a gathering at a half-full Dussehra Maidan. Although he was at his eloquent best lambasting the UPA Government for its failure to provide “job security” and “physical security”, there was a stream of people, though thin, moving out of the ground.

Rahul Gandhi’s public meeting on the same ground a day earlier witnessed similar scenes.

If rallies are an indication of the public mood and political tide in Madhya Pradesh, which goes to polls on Thursday, it is a tough call to say who will win this time.

Scales look evenly balanced in the Malwa region, a traditional BJP stronghold. The Congress could win only nine out of the 64 seats here last time.

In other regions of the state too, there are reports of a tough contest, largely due to the presence of regional players like the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Uma Bharti’s Bhartiya Jan Shakti (BJS). The BSP has fielded candidates on all the seats, while the BJS is contesting on 215 of the total 230 seats. The Lodhi community to which Bharti belongs can play a decisive role on at least 42 seats in the state.

... contd.