The Bush administration must now start “from the premise that he’s gone, whether the people chuck him out or themilitary chucks him out,” said Xenia Dormandy, who until last year was the National Security Council’s director for South Asia. “I would be very surprised if he lasts even six months.”

Dormandy faulted the Bush administration for sending “mixed messages” to Musharraf in recent months, allowing him to believe he could weather the fallout from a declaration of emergency powers. She emphasized the State Department’s statement yesterday that the United States stands “with the people of Pakistan in supporting a democratic process and in countering violent extremism,” and noted that it did not mention support for Musharraf.

“The train is derailed and off the tracks,” said Stephen P Cohen, author of The Idea of Pakistan. “We have to give ourselves a share of the responsibility for this. We placed all of our chips on Musharraf.”

At this point, Cohen added: “I don’t think there is anything we can do. We are not big players in this anymore.”