Invariably, people castigate the Left for obstructing reforms. While that’s true, West Bengal’s problem isn’t one of misguided policies alone. Even more importantly, it is a problem of flailing implementation, a collapse of administrative machinery, since all governance functions have been abdicated to the party. Consequently, nomenklatura has taken over. Historically, the Left was perceived to be relatively clean and honest. In West Bengal, that image has taken a beating, and there are several visible and high-profile instances of corruption. Why then does the Left continue and why isn’t it voted out?

The answer isn’t rigging. While that exists, it is unlikely to be quantitatively significant. Part of the answer lies in organised party machinery, required to mobilise and ensure supporters turn up to vote, especially important for migrant labour. But an even more important answer is TINA (there is no alternative). The opposition has neither been united, nor credible and votes have been split. For instance, let’s look at West Bengal’s 42 Lok Sabha seats after delimitation and add up votes cast in the 2008 panchayat elections, to deduce whether Trinamool plus Congress vote shares exceed those of the Left. There are several ifs and buts in this exercise. With those caveats, the only “safe” Left seats are Joynagar, Arambagh, Ghatal, Jhargram, Bankura, Bishnupur, Purba-Burdhaman and Burdhaman-Durgapur. With a united opposition, all but these eight are assailable, and Purba-Burdhaman and Burdhaman-Durgapur can also be under threat if BJP votes switch. With the Trinamool-Congress tie-up, the opposition is largely united, though credibility can be questioned. The Nandigram and Bishnupur (West) by-elections also demonstrate the east may not be entirely red, a fact Jyoti Basu also acknowledges. The Left’s governance record doesn’t warrant its being voted back in and some years in opposition may be good for the Left too. For the moment, after several decades, West Bengal’s voters have a genuine choice.

... contd.