Auto industry: Out of the woods yet?

If we get a stable govt,the auto industry may well see a new economic boom.

The prophets of doom tend to paint gloomy pictures but a slightly sagging growth rate does not mean disaster. The auto industry,as the countrys largest manufacturing industry,reflects the general state of the Indian economy where a slight economic slowdown plus political uncertainty has undoubtedly lowered the production growth of passenger vehicles by 3.07% and commercial vehicles by 13.5%,though two-wheelers have grown by 5.5% during the first eight months of this financial year.

But these figures hide the fact that production is still huge. At this rate,India will produce over 3 million passenger vehicles,700,000 commercial vehicles and 17 million two-wheelers the coming year,of which about 17% will be exported. These have a huge impact on Indias employment and overall economy. The auto-makers directly employ something like 200,000 people,with much more in their vendor industries. About 30,000 trucks employing about 150,000 people are needed to move the vehicles and components while tens of thousands more are employed by their roughly 5,000 dealers. These salaries generate huge tertiary employment among the people who give them food,clothing,shelter,entertainment,medical,educational and many other services.

Lower growth rates,however,increase the competitive pressure on auto-makers who have to offer new models,new technologies and new marketing strategies to support market shares that are becoming increasingly unpredictable. It also puts huge pressure on the components industry that actually makes some 70% of all vehicles. So,it is not surprising that everyone complains.

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On the plus side,however,auto-makers have to work harder to widen their markets. Their efforts towards export are increasing and this is undoubtedly aided by the falling exchange rates. India is consequently becoming one of the major global export hubs for small cars. Companies such as Hyundai,Maruti,Tata,General Motors,Ford and others have been very successful in many global markets. On the other hand,in the domestic market,there has been increased expansion into smaller towns and rural areas following improved road infrastructure.

Many new models have bridged the traditional boundaries between cars and SUVs,and several soft roaders such as the Renault Duster and Ford EcoSport have been very successful. New packages such as the Maruti Ertiga and Chevrolet Enjoy have successfully filled a gap between small sedans and utility vehicles. New technologies have brought us revolutionary engines such as some new small diesels by Toyota,Chevrolet and Honda that pack a big punch. Among petrol engines,the Ford EcoSports brilliant 999cc engine delivers unbelievable power and torque with amazing fuel efficiency.

Every Indian car today is safe,reliable and fuel-efficient,and the main differentiators are styling and long-term value. Brilliant styling by Hyundai in their Sonata,Elantra,Verna and i10 models has been a good example. Mechanically,there is not much to choose between the great luxury segment models but their styling and image engineering are the differentiators even as lower cost luxury brands like the BMW 1 Series or the Mercedes-Benz A-Class are reaching to many who could not consider these brands before.

The year ahead will see many challenges with the exchange rates triggering a rising price for fuels and imported components. Politics will definitely affect market sentiments,but if the next elections produce a stable government,the industry may well lead a new economic boom.

Murad Ali Baig is a renowned automobile journalist

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