If the next government is BJP-led with an UPA-like arithmetic, will L.K. Advani be able to do things differently? Advani can’t comfort himself by saying Manmohan Singh is a weak PM (which he is, in some ways). Even if Arjun Singh and Pranab Mukherjee were fearful of Dr Singh, Baalu, Paswan, Raja would not have been. The same situation will apply to Advani unless the BJP’s numbers are big enough.

If we take the trend of national parties getting fewer seats as given — it would be wonderful to be proved wrong — is there a solution? The BJP or the Congress can have the political version of a pre-nuptial agreement with allies: allies can pick their own ministers once the ministries have been negotiated but the prime minister will have the right to remove an allied party minister, with the concession that the allied party, in consultation with the prime minister, can suggest a replacement.

This is a second or a third best solution. Allies should not be able to book a ministry for the whole term. And even this rule won’t probably work when the troublesome allied party minister is also the allied party supreme leader. You can’t consult with Ram Vilas Paswan on who will replace Ram Vilas Paswan. But the first best solution, which Vajpayee applied a few times, is impossible now.

This way, at least, allied party ministers who are not party chiefs will have some disincentive against going off on a policy tangent. It is possible to imagine that had this agreement prevailed, Dr Singh could have, after discussions with Karunanidhi about Raja’s policy statements, frightened the DMK minister a bit. Or that Dr Singh would have had a say when Karunanidhi wanted Dayanidhi Maran out of the cabinet.

... contd.