Indeed, judging by outcomes, the results are sobering for proponents of KP-type targets and the associated cap-and-trade system — for example, the EU-Emissions Trading Scheme. Were it not for the industrial collapse of Russia and the Ukraine, the KP’s register of GHG emissions shows an increase since 1990. In five of the EU-15 countries, emissions increased more than in the US between 1990 and 2005, and even in Japan emissions are increasing. Furthermore, determining whether reductions would have taken place in the absence of projects under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) can be complex, which is another way of saying that we are unsure whether it has actually worked for the proximate objective of mitigating global emissions.

If the track record of present schemes to reduce emissions has been poor, recent laxity in national environmental policies is acutely worrisome for long-term GHG targets. The British oil giant, BP, is the latest oil company that will extract crude oil from tar sands found beneath prime forest in Alberta, Canada. The oil sands industry, by producing up to 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, will make it difficult for Canada to meet its commitments under the KP. Can a country that is prosperous by every conceivable measure — and is reported to have harangued developing countries at Bali to agree to emission targets — justify exploitation of such an environmentally damaging resource?

Recent research at Oxford University suggests, that the UK may be responsible for far more GHG emissions than official figures admit, once carbon embedded in imported goods and aviation is included. According to official figures, UK’s emissions are 15 per cent below that in 1990, compared to the commitment under the KP of 12.5 per cent. Emissions have been measured from the standpoint of national ‘production’ of GHGs, and not the consumption-based carbon footprint of residents of a country, which is what the latest research seeks to do. But even this is not clear-cut, since a UK resident is not the only beneficiary of a good made in, say, Asia (where emissions took place) but also the factory that made a return on its investment by exporting; the illustration underscores inherent nuances of apportioning emissions at a practical level.

... contd.