This year’s monsoon will be erratic. Rains will be good in many states, but there will be drought in several areas. There is also the possibility of a great calamity and the untimely demise of a great politician.

Excerpts from a weather forecast and a soothsayer’s prediction?

No, this was the “forecast” after a three-hour conclave of a community in western Rajasthan whose only job over the ages has been to make predictions, after a traditional ceremony involving a yajna, a bamboo stick exercise and a fierce raid on grain stocks. Traditional means of predicting the monsoon have been in vogue in the Thar for decades. While some communities read the behaviour of nesting birds (higher the nest, better the monsoon) and movement of the insects, the most famous among them is the ancient method of Dhani performed by the Ghachi community, whose members are said to be experts at reading the nature’s subtle signs and messages just before the onset of rains.

Scientists and weathermen call it superstitious nonsense, but the people in western Rajasthan swear the forecast always comes true. The ritual is performed every year on Akha Teej (the festival infamous in Rajasthan for child marriages).

The process adopted by them is ridiculously simple. Two boys, both below nine, stand in front of each other with two bamboo sticks, one black and the other red. As the entire community begins a yajna with the chanting of mantras, the sticks are gradually raised over their arms. The experts from the community watch the movement of the two sticks, their friction and the effect of the heat on the boys to make the predictions. Hundreds of people from the city and adjoining villages come to watch the ceremony.

... contd.