The opposition was down to six countries, Ireland, Austria, New Zealand, Switzerland, Norway and Netherlands. But by late tonight, sources said, Netherlands and Norway had begun to show more “flexibility” after the US explained that India had made it clear it could not accept any more amendments. The option left was to either go ahead with the exemption or let India “walk away” after coming this far.

However, China seemed to play the spoiler arguing that there was no compulsion to push for a decision at this meeting and if there were still reservations, more time should be given to address concerns related to the “global non-proliferation architecture.” Clearly, this was not acceptable to the US because it would jeopardize the entire nuclear deal going by the tough timeline that lies ahead on Capitol Hill.

But the Chinese position added weight to the hold-out countries which agreed with Beijing. Yet, by evening, indications were that a decision was likely by tomorrow. In fact, US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control John Rood slated a meeting in the International Atomic Energy Agency tomorrow afternoon fuelling speculation that the NSG meet may conclude earlier than expected.

While there are no significant changes in the new draft before the NSG, sources said, the upfront reference to Paragraph 16 of the NSG guidelines in the exemption note is being used to good effect by US diplomats to win over the sceptics. The revised draft states that if one or more member states consider that “circumstances have arisen” for consultations, then the NSG will go according to procedures in Paragraph 16 of its guidelines.

This says that once consultations are on, supplier countries will not do anything to “prejudice” the process. In other words, they may take appropriate action which could even include suspending the transfer of Trigger List items — sensitive technology that could be used in the weapons programme — during this period. And if a violation is confirmed upon consultation, Paragraph 16 is clear that countries will terminate supplies.

Sources said this provision is similar to what is agreed in the 123 agreement, where consultations take place before termination. US diplomats have argued in the NSG that this provision is an effective response built into the exemption in case India were to detonate a device.

After the first session, delegations from the six “sceptic” countries held a meeting over lunch after US stepped up efforts to outflank them.

The relatively reduced scepticism by the end of the day was backed by calls to not prolong this decision. While the NSG started its meeting, sources said, New Delhi was burning the phone lines. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and National Security Advisor M K Narayanan have been speaking to their counterparts in the six “holdout” countries asking them not to block a consensus.

The group held a three-hour session in the forenoon and then reconvened for an hour in the evening. “US believes firmly that the steps we are considering for India will strengthen the non-proliferation regime and will help to welcome one of the world’s largest economies and biggest democracies more fully into the global fold. I believe they are making steady progress in this process and we will continue to make progress,” said US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns who is heading the US delegation here.

It’s learnt that the US has, in the past two days, sent a “strong political message” to the six countries, asking them to consider that burdening the draft with any condition unacceptable to India will only make New Delhi walk away from the initiative which would be a “net loss” for non-proliferation.

One of the proposals made at the meeting today was that India give a public statement reaffirming its commitments made in the July 18, 2005 joint statement as a reassurance.

For the Manmohan Singh government, a consensus at the NSG could help respond to the political criticism in New Delhi over the State Department letter to the US Congress made public by chairperson of the House International Relations Committee Howard Berman. It would allow the government to argue that the nuclear deal was no longer a Indo-US affair and that other partners like Russia and France would, perhaps, matter more in the implementation of the nuclear deal.The Night Before

• Only Ireland, Austria, New Zealand and Switzerland holdout countries, getting cover fire from China

• US tells them: Any more changes, India walks away

• PM, Pranab work the phones

• One proposal: India issue a statement reiterating July 2005 agreement

• US fixes meeting with IAEA for Friday afternoon

• Revised draft says if a member complains of violation — for example, a test — NSG will call a meeting and members can put transfers on hold until decision