As Gujarat begins to lock in the electoral verdict on Tuesday, 669 candidates will fight it out at 87 seats in the first phase. While several forces seem to be ranged against the BJP, caste is likely to be a major stumbling block in Kutch, Saurashtra and South Gujarat, that go to polls in the first phase. The one factor working for the party is the charisma of Chief Minister Narendra Modi, backed by a tech-savvy campaign projecting him as a leader towering above everybody else in the state.

The anti-Modi Patidar factor—centred on the angst of Keshubhai Patel-led Leuva Patel community—poses a serious threat to the BJP in at least 20 Assembly segments of Saurashtra. Led by Gordhan Zadaphia and blessed by Keshubhai and Suresh Mehta, the Sardar Patel Utkarsh Samiti synergised with the Congress to give a difficult time to the BJP by organising huge farmer conventions at Jasdan and Rajkot.

Though the Koli community, with influence in the same number of constituencies in Saurashtra, is split, going against the BJP over the Junagadh rape and murder incident, the Rajputs and Darbars have shown a renewed interest in the party. Add to it the feeling of unease in the farming community due to the monsoon’s destructive trail in Saurashtra, and the region represents a million mutinies against the BJP, only loosely countered by Modi’s image.

This too came under attack when Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, while launching the party’s campaign from Chikhli on December 1, referred to him as “maut ka saudagar”. Modi promptly hit back by bringing in the fake encounter of Sohrabuddin Sheikh. Having hitched on to the development bandwagon earlier, it was an about-turn for Modi, which had the Election Commission slapping notices against both.

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