The anti-Modi Patidar factor—centred on the angst of Keshubhai Patel-led Leuva Patel community—poses a serious threat to the BJP in at least 20 Assembly segments of Saurashtra. Led by Gordhan Zadaphia and blessed by Keshubhai and Suresh Mehta, the Sardar Patel Utkarsh Samiti synergised with the Congress to give a difficult time to the BJP by organising huge farmer conventions at Jasdan and Rajkot.

Though the Koli community, with influence in the same number of constituencies in Saurashtra, is split, going against the BJP over the Junagadh rape and murder incident, the Rajputs and Darbars have shown a renewed interest in the party. Add to it the feeling of unease in the farming community due to the monsoon’s destructive trail in Saurashtra, and the region represents a million mutinies against the BJP, only loosely countered by Modi’s image.

This too came under attack when Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, while launching the party’s campaign from Chikhli on December 1, referred to him as “maut ka saudagar”. Modi promptly hit back by bringing in the fake encounter of Sohrabuddin Sheikh. Having hitched on to the development bandwagon earlier, it was an about-turn for Modi, which had the Election Commission slapping notices against both.

Tuesday’s poll—with the closest contests at Rajkot-II, Porbandar, Botad, Bhavnagar (South), Surat (North), and Chorasi—will seal the fate of 10 Cabinet ministers, including Vajubhai Vala (Rajkot-II), Narottam Patel (Chorasi), I.K. Jadeja (Dhrangadhara), Mangubhai Patel (Navsari), Saurabh Patel (Botad), Chhatrasinh Mori (Jambusar), Mulu Bera (Bhanvad), Ratilal Sureja (Junagadh), Parsottam Solanki (Ghogha), and Jasuben Korat (Jetpur).

Of these, Saurabh Patel, Vajubhai Vala, and Mangubhai Patel face especially tough contests. As Energy Minister, Saurabh Patel might boast a clean report card, but the rural electorate is angry with him for the electricity board raids in their fields. In C.C. Pithawala, the Congress has found the right combination of caste and pedigree. If Saurabh is an MBA from US, Pithawala is an MBA from London. Vala faces an adverse caste equation owing to the Lohana community’s disenchantment with the BJP over giving a ticket to Kanti Amrutiya from Morbi, an accused in the murder of a local Lohana leader. Born Brahmin and married into a Lohana family, Vala’s opponent Kashmira Nathwani has the right mix of RSS lineage and caste.

In south Gujarat, Forest Minister Mangubhai Patel is locked in a triangular contest, with rebel BJP leader and former minister Rajnikant Rajwadi fighting on a Bharatiya Janshakti ticket, who is set to cut into Patel’s votes.

Hoping to open an account in Gujarat, the BSP could get notable votes in Abdasa, Mandvi, Bhuj, Babra and Rajula, while the Congress has given four constituencies to NCP and one to CPM. The first phase will also see 54 women candidates: 14 from BJP, eight from Congress, 16 from other parties, and 16 Independents.