Brinkmanship

Of late,every time the US has tried to push Pakistan into a corner,the bind Washington finds itself in has tightened. If evidence was needed about America’s lack of options in Af-Pak,then Pakistan’s unapologetic defiance over the allegations of ISI support for the Haqqani network is more than enough. In a significant break from its policy of playing down,in public,the Pakistani establishment’s support for the Taliban and its insurgent franchises,the Obama administration has officially accused Pakistan of indirect responsibility for attacks against US interests in Afghanistan,notably the 20-hour assault on the US embassy and NATO headquarters on September 13 carried out by the Haqqani network based in North Waziristan. Pakistan reacted to Admiral Mike Mullen’s testimony,which described the Haqqanis as a “veritable arm” of the ISI,by protesting the “negative statements emanating from the US” and warning Washington that it “could lose an ally”.

The Haqqani network is the most potent destabilising entity operating in Afghanistan,counting among its hits the July 2008 attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul,the June attack on the Inter-Continental Hotel this year,allegedly the May 2010 Kabul bombing,assassination attempts on Afghan President Hamid Karzai,and several others. As the US plans to fully draw down by 2014,Pakistan would be looking to elements like the Haqqanis — whom it has given sanctuary all along — to regain its strategic depth in Afghanistan and control over the administration. This is what Islamabad enjoyed unhindered when Afghanistan was under Taliban rule — a geopolitical breadth that began expanding with the Soviet withdrawal in the late 1980s,which almost collapsed after the 2001 US-led invasion. Therefore,Pakistan has ignored US pressure for acting against the Haqqani network and calculatedly supported the recent attacks.

Mullen’s testimony — coming from the man charged with building a workable relation with Pakistan,who has earlier said that a “flawed and difficult” relationship is preferable to none at all — underscores the need for a new US strategy,given the demonstrated failure of its “carrots and sticks”. Public exposure has not compelled Pakistan to change its behaviour,nor is it likely to now. All that the US can do is increase the pressure and keep talking to the Pakistani government and military. It is,however,India that must keep a close watch on how things unfold. As the Af-Pak geopolitics transforms itself,New Delhi must anticipate and confront a future of heightened security threats.