As it greets the new year, China will also be wary of its date with history. 2009 will be a year that will bring several uncomfortable anniversaries, each with a great deal of political symbolism. Among these will be the 20th anniversary of the Tiananmen crackdown and the 50th anniversary of the Tibetan uprising. There are already signs that the leadership is increasingly nervous and in no mood to take chances. Last month, a leading dissident writer was arrested for being part of Charter ’08, a petition by 303 leading Chinese intellectuals, calling for democratic reforms. But China might do well to remember that increasing control in the name of caution could be like throwing the red rag for the bull to come charging in.

The writer is a fellow of the India China Institute at the New School in New York

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