Following the resounding endorsement of the Indo-US nuclear deal in the American Senate Thursday night, Indian diplomatic attention now turns to President Hu Jintao who arrives in India for a four day visit on Monday.

As comparisons between the strong bipartisan support in the US to renew civilian nuclear cooperation with India and China’s opposition on the Indo-US nuclear deal become inevitable in the coming days, Hu can no longer afford to fudge the question. The nuclear issue in Sino-Indian relations has also gained a new salience amidst increasingly credible reports that Hu will announce the sale of new nuclear reactors to Pakistan during his Islamabad next week.

There are some indications that President Hu might broadly acknowledge India’s aspirations for energy security and the importance New Delhi attaches to civilian nuclear cooperation. But that is unlikely to satisfy India, since New Delhi is aware of Beijing’s important caveat that any nuclear cooperation with India must be within the parameters of global non-proliferation regime.

Translated, this condition is a polite way of saying no. However, if Prime Minister Manmohan Singh takes up the issue directly with Hu and the Chinese President recognises the negative consequences of opposing the Indo-US nuclear deal, there could be a very different outcome. If President Hu chooses to be bold, he could recall China’s past civilian nuclear cooperation with India and announce Beijing’s willingness to not just support the Indo-US nuclear deal but also promise to sell Chinese nuclear reactors to India after the international community accepts the deal.

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