
First of all, Comrade Bardhan must get his notion on the longevity of a marriage from Hollywood. For, in real life, neither does a marriage end with honeymoon, nor do people file divorce papers the moment the initial rush of hormones runs out. But nobody stopped to ask this question. Karat then said the honeymoon is over, but marriage can go on for some more time. TV channels, newspapers, all took their cue - marriage, after all, is such a wonderfully convenient expression for headline writers.
As this drama unfolds, I can imagine many other variations on the theme. Marriage on the rocks, estranged bedfellows, separation plans (which goes nicely with the idea of separating civil and military facilities under 123) and so on. But the question we need to ask, first of all, is whether a marriage had taken place at all, to begin with? And before we talk of a honeymoon, let us ask whether there was ever enough chemistry even for a torrid one-night stand?
The answer is no. May 2004 produced a Parliament where only one coalition was possible. And so the Left and the Congress entered into some sort of an alliance of the hostiles. This was not even a marriage of convenience, just a cynical coming together of two sworn enemies to keep a common enemy, the BJP, out. There was never any warmth, trust, shared values or affection, history, psychology, philosophy, physics, chemistry, endocrinology, nothing.
There was just, pure arithmetic, and cold, pragmatic logic of the result of 2004. The CMP was no pre-nuptial agreement. It was merely six pages of crudely and hastily worded fluff and no side, least of all the Congress, had any real faith in it.
The Congress never had any faith in the CMP and the Left never had any faith in the Congress. The breaking point, which has today come because of the nuclear deal, could have come on a whole list of other issues. It is just that the Congress chose to swallow its pride.
There was never any love affair, no courtship, no marriage, and therefore there will be no divorce. Soon enough, the two hostiles will be back to their familiar roles, and their mutual blood feuds in Kerala and West Bengal. Whatever happens now, the die for an earlier election is cast and it is for the Congress to choose the timing. To that extent, the more apt metaphor is that of a cricket match interrupted by rain. It is time, therefore, for Duckworth-Lewis and for the calculators to be out.
And howsoever the two sides may deny it, the calculators are indeed out. And howsoever you punch at them, it is evident that the topplers have got their timing hopelessly wrong. You have to remember when hostilities on the foreign policy issue began, and why. It was built up in the background of Manmohan Singh’s increasingly warm engagement with George Bush and the rapidly increasing global Muslim dislike for his policies in the Middle-East. Mulayam Singh Yadav, who by now knew he was going to be in trouble in the state elections, tried to exploit it to shore up his Muslim support. Blinded by their pathological anti-Americanism, the Left walked into that trap of communalising the foreign policy and because on the other side is America, never got out of it. Meanwhile, it did not work for Mulayam either. The more exclusivist, sectarian he made his appeal, the more voters he threw in Mayawati’s lap. So the Third Front fantasy that the Left was building inevitably got reduced to a motley gang-up of losers.
And it is only going to get worse in any election in the foreseeable future. The UNPA today has only 50 members in Lok Sabha. Out of these, 38 come from SP of which four are rebels. There is no way Mulayam will retain even half if the numbers of his state assembly elections are replicated. Jayalalithaa may get a couple more, and surely Naidu will improve some from four in Andhra. But overall, the pack of 50 may only end up diminishing further. As for the Left, ask any of its leaders on the sidelines, before he starts grandstanding for the TV cameras, and they will tell you there is no way Kerala and West Bengal will repeat the windfall of 2004.
The Lok Sabha that emerges from a fresh election will not be substantively different from now. It is reasonable to presume that a new coalition will have to be built around the Congress. And where will the Left go? Particularly when its numbers are lower, their noses bloodied, its prestige dented, its main Third Front ally decimated, and the vital - and decisive - position of the third largest party in that Lok Sabha taken by Mayawati? However sentimental about ideology they may be, leaders of the Left pack more intellect per capita than any other party. They also have more genuine internal democracy than any other. That is why they are blinking and negotiating an honourable way out.