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Calculators are out but topplers have got their timing hopelessly wrong

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  • And it is only going to get worse in any election in the foreseeable future. The UNPA today has only 50 members in Lok Sabha. Out of these, 38 come from SP of which four are rebels. There is no way Mulayam will retain even half if the numbers of his state assembly elections are replicated. Jayalalithaa may get a couple more, and surely Naidu will improve some from four in Andhra. But overall, the pack of 50 may only end up diminishing further. As for the Left, ask any of its leaders on the sidelines, before he starts grandstanding for the TV cameras, and they will tell you there is no way Kerala and West Bengal will repeat the windfall of 2004.

    The Lok Sabha that emerges from a fresh election will not be substantively different from now. It is reasonable to presume that a new coalition will have to be built around the Congress. And where will the Left go? Particularly when its numbers are lower, their noses bloodied, its prestige dented, its main Third Front ally decimated, and the vital - and decisive - position of the third largest party in that Lok Sabha taken by Mayawati? However sentimental about ideology they may be, leaders of the Left pack more intellect per capita than any other party. They also have more genuine internal democracy than any other. That is why they are blinking and negotiating an honourable way out.

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