Opinion Calling Prachandas bluff
Nepal is wising up to the Maoists game plan
Prime Minister Prachanda pulled his coalition from the brink of collapse last week by bowing to every demand that two major political parties Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) made. The plethora of promises he made in Parliament are mostly reiterations of those made and forgotten deliberately in the past that he will return the property of government and individuals confiscated by Maoists cadres during 1996-2005 phase of armed insurgency; that his party leader Sujit B.K. wanted in a murder case,will be handed over to the police; and that the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M) cotinues to respect the independence of judiciary.
All these promise brought an end to the deadlock that had stalled proceedings of the House for more than two weeks. But that,however,does not reduce the chances of UML,a coalition partner,asking its ministers to quit the government sooner than later,which will in turn set off another round of political instability in the country. The UML is apparently undecided whether to nominate another set of members in the Maoist-led council of ministers,or just sit outside the government until another political equation emerges,once the withdrawal takes place. UML,like Nepali Congress and most other political parties believe that Prachandas promises,like in the past,are meant to be forgotten.
Prachanda has reasons to cling to power,and for that he will browbeat the institutions of the state including the army,judiciary as well as the free media. This will not be possible once the party is out of power. Moreover,his party,the CPN-M ,has been insisting that the reintegration of the Maoist combatants in the Nepal army must be completed within the next three months as a condition for writing the new Constitution within the stipulated time frame of May 2010. The reintegration issue is being firmly opposed by almost all the political parties,including major coalition partners in the government.
The Nepal army is also suspicious of Maoist intentions. The Maoists have,time and again,demonstrated that the Nepal army is the biggest hurdle in its way and has used every excuse to demoralise it the latest being a 24 hour ultimatum served on Army Chief R Katawal,accusing him of not cooperating with the Maoist government and acting in detriment to the peace process. But the move has only isolated the Maoists,as all other parties including the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) have threatened to take to the streets if arbitrary steps are taken to politicise and demoralise the army.
The army is not alone on theMaoist hit list. This is also a message to the Supreme Court,as two of the issues covered under the showcause recruitment at the lower level and the service exension of eight brigadier generals at Katawals initiatives are subjudice,and at least two Maoist ministers have threatened that judges going against government moves will be impeached.
The time for this message could not have been more appropriate. A new chief justice of the Supreme Court is to be appointed by May 2,and there are fears that the CPN-M (which has its senior central committee member as a law minister),may try to deny the senior-most judge in the line of succession a chance. Law Minister Deb Gurung has even suggested in the past that the Maoist members of the Kangaroo courts must be integrated in the judicial system of New Nepal so that justice becomes pro-people. And the media that has of late been exposing Prachandas (and his sons) lavish lifestyle,poor performance and non-implementation of past promises,has become the latest target of the prime ministers ire. Big media are controlled by smugglers,he said publicly, a couple of days after a local daily brought out his son Prakashs photograph in a drunken state. Prakash,a party office bearer and member of the prime ministers secretarial staff,has been going around repeating what his father had to say about the media.
The Maoists continue to possess a private army called the Peoples Liberation Army and continue to bear arms. The Nepal army has complained to President Rambaran Yadav,supreme commander of the Nepal army,that sensitive documents (of the Nepal army) are being leaked to the PLA. The accusations are no doubt directed against Defence Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal who also happens to be the most powerful central committee member of the CPN-M. Appeasing the coalition partners and opposition by making every promise they want to hear is therefore a tactical necessity on the part of Prachanda. But the latest show cause episode has scared every other party.
The Maoist-led government has also succeeded in buying the silence of international donors including the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). The government has embarked upon subsidy galore,something that countrys economy can not support. There are fears that these subsidies,coming at the time of recession,may lead to collapse of some of the banks . Interestingly,IMF and the World Bank had forced previous regimes to go for banking sector reforms,loan recovery and do away with subsidies in the past. But they are not responding to the situation. Perhaps they know that appeasing Prachanda and the Maoists is the only way of continuing their business in Nepal.
But for the first time,political parties have realised that succumbing to fear will lead to their slow death or political irrelevance as Prachanda will not budge an inch from his doctrine and that working together is only a tactical compromise to conquer.
yubaraj.ghimire@expressindia.com
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