Prime Minister Prachanda pulled his coalition from the brink of collapse last week by bowing to every demand that two major political parties — Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) — made. The plethora of promises he made in Parliament are mostly reiterations of those made and forgotten deliberately in the past — that he will return the property of government and individuals confiscated by Maoists cadres during 1996-2005 phase of armed insurgency; that his party leader Sujit B.K. wanted in a murder case, will be handed over to the police; and that the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M) cotinues to respect the independence of judiciary.

All these promise brought an end to the deadlock that had stalled proceedings of the House for more than two weeks. But that, however, does not reduce the chances of UML, a coalition partner, asking its ministers to quit the government sooner than later, which will in turn set off another round of political instability in the country. The UML is apparently undecided whether to nominate another set of members in the Maoist-led council of ministers, or just sit outside the government until another political equation emerges, once the ‘withdrawal’ takes place. UML, like Nepali Congress and most other political parties believe that Prachanda’s promises, like in the past, are meant to be forgotten.

Prachanda has reasons to cling to power, and for that he will browbeat the institutions of the state — including the army, judiciary as well as the free media. This will not be possible once the party is out of power. Moreover, his party, the CPN-M , has been insisting that the reintegration of the Maoist combatants in the Nepal army must be completed within the next three months as a condition for writing the new Constitution within the stipulated time frame of May 2010. The reintegration issue is being firmly opposed by almost all the political parties, including major coalition partners in the government.

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