Do the math. 200 million-plus people are engaged in a high-risk economic activity where the average size of the business is tiny, where output per head (what economists call productivity) is stagnant or decreasing, where marketing opportunities are limited and where god and government largely determine income outcomes. This is a recipe for keeping 200 million-plus people in a state of permanent, acute vulnerability. Especially the 100 million-odd who are not just workers but have some capital. In the first decade of the 21st century, in a democracy that’s called a major economy, is this normal? Tolerable? Socially, economically and politically acceptable? Put like this, the answers are “no” in every case. Put in the context of India’s political economy, and recognising that we are talking about Indian agriculture, the answer seems to be “yes”.

As the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and the government abandon their month and a half long fantasy that monsoon will be normal, as drought management meetings begin in earnest, the question public policy should but won’t ask is, why is the status quo in farming so sanctified? Yes, there are micro issues that are important right now. IMD’s long period-large area weather prediction model needs competition. Drought relief needs to be targeted to the dozen and a half agro-climatic regions that seem to be the most hit by poor rains. Fine-tuning NREGA, so that it acts as an income stabiliser in a drought, is crucial. Whether the soil moisture content for the winter crop has been critically affected by deficient southwest monsoons needs to estimated.

... contd.