The Bali meet is focusing world attention on climate change. The question arises whether India, instead of cutting down on emissions, can develop ‘carbon-free’ technologies to achieve desired economic growth.

The Planning Commission estimates India’s total commercial energy supply at about 4000 billion kwh. This is estimated to grow to 20,000 billion kwh by 2030. How India achieves this steep growth is in itself a challenge. It is compounded by the requirement that a ‘reasonable’ fraction of this energy be from carbon-free sources. What is reasonable? Many new carbon-free technologies are still to become feasible for large-scale implementation and coal, oil and gas at present supply 97 per cent of India’s commercial energy. It is, therefore, nearly impossible to make a major switch from conventional resources. One option would be to plan for say 15 per cent of India’s future energy needs coming from carbon-free technologies.

So what are the choices? Wind power is a reasonably mature technology. India, with its installed capacity of 7,600 mw, is the fourth largest user in the world. Wind power potential is estimated at 45,000 mw. However, it is location-specific and intermittent. Wind speeds here are lower than those in Europe and consequently turbines operate at about 20 per cent load factor. If India achieves the estimated potential of 45,000 mw, wind can generate about 100 billion kwh — which is less than 1 per cent of desired supply. Wind will, therefore, remain a marginal player.

Then there are bio-fuels. Oil-bearing crops such as jatropha and mahua can be used to produce bio-diesel. Likewise, ethanol can be produced from sugarcane juice, molasses and sweet sorghum. An enticing option would be to produce fuel from waste cellulosic biomass such as rice husk and sugarcane bagasse, although the technology is yet to be commercially proven. However, large scale bio-fuel production requires careful planning. Use of land for bio-fuels should not in any way compromise food grain production. India has an estimated 30 million ha of cultivable wastelands. Using 20 million ha for cultivating oil-bearing crops can produce about 25 million tonnes of bio-oil equivalent to 300 billion kwh of energy. Add to this another 100 billion kwh from ethanol, and the total contribution of bio-fuels will be about 2 per cent of India’s energy supply.

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