But analysts say these elections will demonstrate if all that is about to change.

The past elections since the formation of the state, at least until the constitution of the Telugu Desam by NTR two-and-a-half decades ago, had seen the state’s rainbow caste coalition under the grand umbrella of the Congress. The fact that it was dominated briefly by Brahmins, and then by Reddys was accepted by several caste groups, until NTR blazed his way into the grand scheme. And while he broke into Congress votes on ‘Telugu pride’, he eventually provided a platform for another landed and prosperous caste group, the Kammas, rivals of Reddys in several ways. But the TDP, too, was a broad coalition as the backward castes here aligned themselves with the party.

However, while Dalits, other forward castes and minorities have stayed with the Congress, there is restlessness amongst the Kapus, a strong, landed but disaggregated caste group.

The Kapus — who call themselves the OCs here and are equivalent to the Kurmis or Bhumihars of north India— are generally well off and dominant in regions like the Godavari delta, but poor and backward in Rayalaseema and Telangana.

Their restlessness, says literary and social commentator Sachidanandan Sarma, found expression in Kapu leader Miriyala Venkat Rao. “He formed a pressure group and met PMs and CMs to push for them 15 years ago. Kapu associations have been around for nearly three decades now, as they were looking for an identity and a place in politics. They were lost in the Reddy/Kamma race, even though these groups taken together, numerically, are less than the Kapus,” says Sarma.

This is where Chiranjeevi comes in. A Kapu from West Godavari district, he has been eagerly appropriated by the community, which is looking to see “one of their own get to the CM’s chair.”

While Chiranjeevi used eclectic symbolism — he launched his party on Mother Teresa’s birthday and has expressed his admiration for Bhimrao Ambedkar and Jyotiba Phule — he has now become associated with a caste formulation.

The Praja Rajyam Party, by not spelling out what it means by ‘samajik nyayam’ (social justice), has lost an opportunity to broadbase itself, but has achieved its objective of being interpreted as a vehicle to assert the Kapu identity. ‘Social justice’ is interpreted to mean political space for Kapus, who claim they comprise about one fifth of the state’s population. Varalakshmi, a homemaker in the Konaseema area, laughs, “Let us see what he will do. If he does not deliver, my children are there to take care of him”.

Now, with Kapus seeing a possibility in Praja Rajyam, other divides too seem to be getting sharper. For example, this Sunday, in the village of Godula in Amlapuram (a reserved parliamentary constituency), Dalits (seen as Congress voters) clashed with Kapus (thought to be Praja Rajyam supporters). Locals say this has been happening since January, with leaders adding fuel to the fire.

Says renowned Dalit poet and professor in Telugu University in Rajahmundry, Prof Yendluri Sudhakar: “In many parts of the state, even in small restaurants, there is a ‘two-tumbler’ system, one for Dalits and the other for non-Dalits. Even if I go in jeans and an expensive shirt, I will be denied a steel plate and made to eat from paper if they find out I’m a Dalit. It has happened to me.”

Such practices continue, says Sudhakar, because no single party has established itself for the Dalit cause. This, in part, is due to fragmentation within the community. “There are 59 Dalit sub-castes, with Malars at the top. They are opposed to granting any gradation between Dalits for reservation purposes, which sub-groups like the Madigas are demanding,” says Sudhakar.

While Mayawati’s BSP would be expected to thrive in conditions like this, the party has failed to tap into the community’s sentiments here despite contesting all 42 LS seats. As Mayawati is opposed to any sub-classification among Dalits for jobs, she is largely unable to become the focal point.

Until now, the Congress’s broad coalition of the Reddys, a section of the forwards, Dalits and minorities is holding, as is the TDP’s mix of Kammas, a few forwards and backward classes.

But what will make this election crucial is how Chiranjeevi will perform. If he is able to make some headway by walking off with Kapu votes and helping bring this disaggregated caste group together as a coherent and politically influential force, it could lead to a major realignment in how the other two big players position themselves.

Commentator Sachidanandam Sarma has a formulation. He calls caste here the “under-drainage system”. And this election has the potential of pushing it all well above the surface.