The army too knows its limits and limitations. Additionally, it is aware of and very concerned about the terrorist threat. It is spread thin in the NWFP and knows that it cannot tackle the issue without political help. It mayn’t know, as Einstein apparently did, whether it wants the simplicity on this side of complexity or on the other side, but one thing it does know: it doesn’t want to get mired in politics — again.

It will retain its primacy for sure, not so much because it wants to but because that is how the system has gotten configured and that will take time to change. Given the terrorist threat there is, in fact, need for the next government and the army to remain in sync. But the need for that harmony is precisely what allows for a reconfiguration in favour of the civilian partners — provided, they are smart and can take responsibility for the general direction of policy.

The determining factor at this stage, however, would be the future of Musharraf. Pakistanis want him to leave. The next parliament will face pressure on the issue of deposed judges, amendments to the constitution and Musharraf’s own re-election by the previous parliament. The PPP has said it could live with him and doesn’t see any need to impeach him; the PMLN wants him out, as do some other parties and civil society protestors.

While there is no correlation, much less any causal linkage between Musharraf’s departure and the reduction in the terrorist threat or even the resolution of some other political problems, his presence is likely to keep the system unstable. That is the last thing the army wants.

... contd.