I have a consistent record in election forecasting. Almost always wrong. The only person from whom I won an election-related bet is one of the few real economic forecasters, an econometrician type I regard as a peer. In 1984, he came up on the second day of counting with an estimate for the Congress’ final tally , on the solid basis that they had landed 320 out of 400 and so they would score 80 per cent; but he had not accounted for results from rural and semi-urban Bengal coming late and so the Congress ended closer to my guess. As long as we had a bipartisan national structure, opinion polls did reasonably well. Not any more; and laboured explanations of their limitations had grown boring — even before the EC got at them.  

With hindsight, the indications were always there except that we did not have the antenna to see them. The last time I was in Canada; when abroad, you have time to watch the channels on India. The women coming out of Sonia Gandhi’s speeches told a story which was commented upon, but its full significance did not register until afterwards. With so many channels and media messages it is difficult to escape the tyranny of “experts”; besides, remember that India was shining. 

There is gradual change. While the septuagenarian-plus leaders are flexing their non-existent muscles at each other there are many indications that the much younger electorate is talking of first principles. Being a Midnight’s Children-type, some first principles I like: a secular, open, caring society, for example. Others I don’t. But that is not the point. There seem to be a lot of youngsters out there, confident of their place in the Indian sun, who seem to be pressing what they believe is important. It is interesting that it is leadership in the forties and fifties that is talking of these things, responding to this need, and not the old ones who have decided that they are mandated to rule the country. Of course the national parties’ younger leaders still pay their obeisance to their old leaders, ours being a traditional society. Sometimes they also use language of which we don’t approve. 

... contd.