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Chill thaws in humid Havana

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  • The India-Pakistan peace process, in virtual deep freeze after the 7/11 Mumbai blasts, thawed in the humid Havana afternoon today after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf, on the sidelines of the NAM summit, agreed to resume talks and set up a joint mechanism on cross-border terrorism.

    After a 14-second-long handshake at the Protocol House, set in a sprawling garden complex in the city, Singh and Musharraf had a one-on-one for an hour — prefaced by 15 minutes of delegation-level talks — and agreed to a six-point joint statement that was read out by the Indian Prime Minister.

    “The leaders agreed that the peace process must be maintained,” said Singh, “and its success was important for both countries and the future of the entire region.” As expected, it has been agreed that Foreign Secretary-level talks, as part of the composite dialogue will be resumed, “at the earliest possible.”

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    Significantly, it has been agreed to put in place “an India-Pakistan anti-terrorism institutional mechanism to identify and implement counter-terrorism initiatives and investigations.” In getting Islamabad to accept this and ordering accelerated negotiations on all issues that divide the two nations, Singh has put politics back in command of the Pakistan policy.

    After a year of letting an obstreperous bureaucracy, self-doubt and unfortunate events dictate the dynamics of India’s most important external relationship, Singh today appears to have regained control over the negotiations with Pakistan.

    When he last met Musharraf in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Singh appeared hemmed in and found it difficult to move the peace process forward. And Musharraf’s own antics in New York last year allowed the negative sentiments in the Indian delegation prevail over the strategic imperatives of recasting the relationship with Pakistan.

    When the Mumbai massacre two months ago threatened to undermine the very basis of the negotiations with Pakistan, Singh decided to convey a tough message to Musharraf on terrorism as well as prevent the Indian security establishment from shooting itself in the foot.

    Holding firm to his belief that the destinies of India and Pakistan were interlinked and that it was possible to get Musharraf to act on terrorism, Singh unveiled a tough balancing act.

    The results from the meeting with Musharraf today in Havana have fully borne out the strategic optimism and tactical toughness of Singh’s new approach.

    India’s diplomatic emphasis was less on getting another piece of paper from Musharraf and focused on creating a structure that would allow the two security establishments to initiate the habit of consultation and ultimately cooperation in dealing with terrorism.

    While he sought an enduring framework for cooperation on counter-terrorism, Singh on his part appears to have reaffirmed the Indian commitment to find final solutions to the Kashmir question.

    Neither side was expected to reveal the full nature of the conversation on Kashmir today, but it does not need a rocket scientist to figure out that the two leaders would have agreed on intensifying the back channel negotiations on the subject, which have reportedly made considerable progress already.

    While no dates have been announced for Singh’s visit to Pakistan, it is very much likely that the two leaders have decided to press their bureaucracies to get their act together and generate substantive results.

    It is also significant that the two leaders have explicitly asked the Foreign Secretaries to take the lead in clinching the agreements on such issues as Siachen and Sir Creek.

    It is the personal leadership of Singh, however, that will remain the enduring signal from Havana today. Unlike the last time, when Singh could not hold a quiet private conversation with Musharraf, this time it was the Indian Prime Minister who appears to have led the negotiations with the General.

    And quiet conversations between his envoys and Musharraf in the last two weeks appears to have pre-negotiated the joint statement as well as a road map for an early visit by Singh to Pakistan.

    While India had its way on getting Pakistan to publicly state that it will walk its talk on terror, India also went some distance to make the statement palatable to Pakistan. As Point 4 of the statement goes: the “leaders decided to continue the joint search for a peaceful negotiated settlement of all issues between India and Pakistan, including the issue of Jammu and Kashmir, in a sincere and peaceful manner.”

    The statement goes on to say that “on the Jammu and Kashmir issue, there have been useful discussions” and that, “there is a need to build on convergences and narrow down differences.” India also got Pakistan to remain committed to to all joint statements so far, that is to what was agreed after the January 2004, September 2004, April and then September 2005 meetings.

    The Sir Creek survey has been ordered to commence this November, and work to be done on the resolution of maritime boundaries. It has been decided to also implement agreements and “understandings already reached on LOC-related CBMs including bus services, crossing points and truck service.”

    The Prime Minister has agreed to the invitation of the General to visit Pakistan, though the time for what the PM called a “purposeful visit” would be decided by “diplomatic channels.” There were no questions as the end of the joint appearance of the two leaders but Musharraf, buttonholed by the Indian media, said his lips were sealed and then agreed to mouth a line suggested by a journalist, “Mohabbat Zindabad” — a line inspired by the legendary song from Mughal-e-Azam.

    The process behind this joint statement started with an ice-breaker yesterday with the Indian Foreign Secretary-designate Shiv Shanker Menon meeting his counterpart Riaz Khan for lunch. After that, in Hotel Cohibe, where the Pakistan President was staying, National Security Adviser M K Narayanan also met his counterpart Tariq Aziz and the minutiae of the document were debated and sealed. After his meeting with Musharraf, the Prime Minister met Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

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