With such levels of connectivity and economic integration, a country cannot be on the left, closed side of the curve, can it?

Bremmer demurs: “The (CCP) refuses to tolerate political dissent and has resisted virtually any meaningful political reform. The party makes its political and economic decisions in secret. It views China’s citizens — particularly its ethnic and religious minorities — as risks to be managed rather than as political contributors to China’s development.” As evidence, he cites Beijing’s total control on the media and other forms of communication (for instance, the Great Wall, whereby consumers’ internet usage is strictly monitored), suppression of spiritual organisations like the Falun Dafa, its attempts to limit news of epidemics like SARS, its policies in Xinjian Province, and rural unrest.

What the Communist Party would like to do is move from the left-side stability to right-side stability without the pain of the dip in the middle. For instance, he says Chinese leaders now speak less of “rapid growth” and tend to dwell on “harmonious, coordinated, sustainable development”. Watch China, at stake is much more than the simple — at times, even simplistic — hypothesis of the J Curve.