In the midst of the unrest during March in Tibet, Cub Scout Pack 3944 from Beijing was invited to round the bases and meet their baseball idols, the Los Angeles Dodgers, when they came for the first major league game played in China. Shortly before the first pitch, however, Chinese police told leaders of the expatriate pack that the deal was off. The apparent concern: The boys might agitate for Tibetan independence.

As it prepares to host the Olympics, China is on edge and isn’t likely to take any more chances. Two weeks of unrest in the ethnic Tibetan region has further shaken the confidence of a government already nervous about criticism over its human-rights record.

Analysts say they expect beefed-up surveillance in coming months of Chinese groups deemed troublemakers, including pro-democracy advocates, religious groups and those who petition the government for justice.

They also expect more intense vetting of inbound tourists, more scrutiny of Chinese sports crowds, more ID checks almost everywhere and heightened Internet and media controls as the August games approach.

Tibetan unrest “is going to have a very significant impact,” said Tai Ming Cheng, a professor at the University of California, San Diego.

But Beijing probably will try to avoid having Olympics security become too draconian. “They’ll try and balance the amount of security and the need to keep their international reputation,” Cheng said.