While India has taken note of the event, military analysts say that the South China Sea is a difficult place to operate submarines and China has not yet developed the expertise to operate nuclear submarines far away from mainland.
“It will take a long time for China to develop the operational skills and structures to be able to deploy the (Jin class) SSBNs in a way that makes a real strategic difference. The Xia (China’s older class of nuclear submarines) has never deployed on a deterrent patrol, so operationally the Chinese are starting from scratch,” Hans Kristensen, Director, Nuclear Information Project, FAS, told The Indian Express.
A report in The Daily Telegraph today said that satellite imagery indicated that a substantial harbour has been built that could house nuclear submarines and a host of aircraft carriers.
One photograph shows China’s latest nuclear submarine at the base just a few hundred miles from its neighbours; another shows warships moored at long jetties and a network of tunnels at the Sanya base on the southern tip of Hainan island. One of the issues of concern to the Pentagon, the newspaper reported, is the immense tunnel entrances — 11 of these have been spotted — estimated to be 60 ft high, carved into the hill-side around the base. They could lead to caverns capable of concealing from spy satellites up to 20 nuclear submarines.
The location of the base off Hainan will also give the submarines access to very deep water — exceeding 15,000 feet — within a few miles, making them even harder to detect. Two 1,000-yard piers and three smaller ones could accommodate two carrier strike groups or amphibious assault ships.
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