China’s trust problem

Why the world is wary of China's 'peaceful development'

Roughly a decade ago, senior Chinese leaders became more acutely aware of the growing uneasiness in the international community over their country's rapid increase of power. To allay fears of a rising China, Beijing came up with a reassuring message, encapsulated in the slogan "peaceful rise." Although the phrase was later dropped in favour of an even more anodyne one, "peaceful development", the essence of China's reassurance remained the same: there is no need to get alarmed about our power; we will behave differently from other great powers in history.

Of course, despite Beijing's repeated pledges of peaceful intentions, the rest of the world has kept its scepticism. For one thing, the historical record of conflicts between incumbent great powers and rising powers has provided no cause for complacency. One may find various reasons to suggest that conflict between China and the US-led West is avoidable. But there are equally plausible reasons why such a conflict may be quite likely. In addition, the international community may initially give Beijing the benefit of the doubt. Indeed, the utterance of "peaceful rise" by top Chinese leaders, including President Hu Jintao, was applauded in the United States and Asia. However, Chinese deeds, not words, would be the most convincing evidence that a resurgent Middle Kingdom will pose no threat to its neighbours, let alone directly challenge American hegemony.

Unfortunately, Chinese foreign policy behaviour in the last decade has failed to put to rest the fears of its neighbours and the international community. While on the whole Beijing has followed a pragmatic diplomatic strategy and refrained from directly challenging the status quo, the Chinese government has also engaged in many acts that are deeply disturbing. Topping the list is its military modernisation. As its economy grows, China has more resources to upgrade its military hardware and acquire new capabilities, such as quieter submarines, more advanced jetfighters, and smarter missiles. In the eyes of the Chinese, there is nothing wrong with this, especially considering the relative technological backwardness of the Chinese military. However, such a move inevitably disrupts the fragile balance of power in Asia: a militarily more capable China simply means a relative decline in the military capability of its neighbours and the region's security guarantor, the US. The response to this classic "security dilemma" (one country's pursuit of security makes other countries less secure) is predictable — other Asian countries have also increased their military spending and the US has rebalanced its military deployment to address the rising Chinese military might (popularly known as the pivot to Asia).

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