Opinion Clinton in Pakistan

Admiral Mullen had a few weeks ago accused the Pakistan army of deliberately using terrorist groups like the Haqqani network to kill American soldiers in Afghanistan and destabilise the government in Kabul. Mullen’s decision to go public what the Obama administration had known all along suggested that relations between Washington and Rawalpindi were at a breaking point.

Mullen’s comments were followed by more threats in the US Congress to cut off aid to Pakistan,and bring greater pressure on the Pakistan army. Rawalpindi,in typical fashion,simply brushed off the charges. Having hinted at dire consequences for Pakistan if it did not change course,the Obama administration did not take too long to blink. Within days of Admiral Mullen’s bold remarks,officials at the state department and the White House began to walk back from a serious confrontation with Rawalpindi.

In her recent statements,Clinton had declared that there is no alternative to working with Pakistan,which has a critical role in moving towards peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan. Reports from Washington say Clinton is walking the middle path in the administration between two very divergent positions. On the one hand are those who insist that the interests of Washington and Rawalpindi are in fundamental contradiction with each other. On the other hand,sections of the administration argue that Washington must offer more incentives to the Pakistan army to win its cooperation.

With the Obama administration deeply divided,Pakistan has been complaining about mixed signals from Washington. Clinton,who has the top guns of the Pentagon and the CIA in tow,is expected to deliver an unambiguous message to General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani,Pakistan’s army chief,this week.

Sceptics,however,wonder how clear that message might be. The United States does not have good options in persuading Kayani to change course on Afghanistan and the general knows it. India would want to monitor the Clinton visit to see any potential new US concessions to the Pakistan army.

Knife Edge

According to reports from Kabul,US and Afghan forces have this week begun “Operation Knife Edge” against the Haqqani network,which is at the centre of the current tension between Washington and Rawalpindi. Top officials in Kabul say Operation Knife Edge will deliver a “crushing blow” to the Haqqani network,which conducts deadly attacks in Afghanistan from its sanctuaries across the border in Pakistan.

Washington had apparently given Rawalpindi three options on the Haqqani network: “kill them,let us kill them,or get them to reconcile with Kabul.” General Kayani has refused to launch operations against the network,which Admiral Mullen described as a “veritable arm” of the ISI. While the Pakistan army wants the Haqqani network to be a part of new political arrangements in Kabul,the terms it sets are a bit too hard for Washington to swallow,at least for now. That leaves open the possibility of direct US action against the Haqqani network.

The US has been raining drones on the bases of the Haqqani network in North Waziristan over the last two years. The big question now is whether Washington has the stomach to bring ground troops into the battle against the Haqqanis.

General Kayani,in a briefing to Pakistan’s national assembly this week,was confident that US troops will not enter Pakistan’s territory. He reminded the members that Pakistan was a nuclear power,unlike Iraq and Afghanistan which had to endure US military interventions.

Donilon in Delhi

India will get a first hand account of the American talks with Pakistan when the US national security adviser Tom Donilon visits Delhi next week for consultations with his Indian counterpart Shivshankar Menon and other leaders.

The two sides will also review progress in building the bilateral strategic partnership,discuss the implementation of the civil nuclear deal and other mutual commitments made during President Barack Obama’s visit to India last November,and explore the prospects for cooperation in the upcoming East Asia Summit at Bali,Indonesia later this year.

Menon and Donilon will also set the stage for a meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Obama on the margins of either the G-20 summit in Paris or the East Asian conclave in Bali.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi