Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton won the support of her base in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. She won among white women and older voters in those states, while Senator Barack Obama won his usual strong victory among blacks. White men have been a key swing group in this year’s Democratic primaries. Clinton won the white men in Ohio, tied with Obama for their votes in Texas and came close in Rhode Island.
VERMONT IS OBAMA COUNTRY, SMALLEST STATE GOES TO CLINTON
Obama’s easy victory in Vermont contrasted with the closer races in Ohio, and Texas. Obama’s strong showing in Vermont cut across numerous groups that Clinton usually wins, including whites, older people and women. Obama won the votes of 56 per cent of women in Vermont, 60 per cent of whites, and 58 per cent of those over 60 years old. He won the votes of 64 per cent of men there. Clinton’s victory in Rhode Island was also a contrast. There, she won seven in 10 white women and tied Obama among white men. She won all but the youngest voters and even won among college graduates, a group that has favored Obama in recent contests.
MCCAIN MAKES INROADS WITH EVANGELICALS
38 per cent of voters in the Ohio Republican primary and 47 per cent of voters in the Texas Republican primary were white, evangelical Christians, and Senator John McCain ran close to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee among those voters. Evangelicals have been the base of support for Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister. While McCain did better than he has in the past among conservatives, he still has a problem there. Huckabee won among the most conservative voters in Texas, but McCain was able to narrowly win their votes in Ohio.
OPEN TO ALL
The primaries in Ohio, Texas and Vermont were open to all voters, while in Rhode Island registered independents could choose which party’s primary to vote in. In Ohio and Texas, Republicans and self-described independents voting in the Democratic primary split between Clinton and Obama. In Vermont, independents went mostly for Obama, while they split about evenly between the two candidates in Rhode Island.
SUPERDELEGATES
Roughly six in 10 Democratic voters on Tuesday said “superdelegates”— party leaders and elected officials who get to cast votes at the party nominating convention this summer in Denver— should vote based on results of the primaries and caucuses rather than for the candidate they think has the best chance to win in November.
Even among Clinton’s voters, about half said the superdelegates should follow the results of the primaries and caucuses. Obama’s supporters were more likely to say so. Clinton is trailing in pledged delegates and, depending on how the remaining primaries go, it’s possible her only chance for the nomination is if many superdelegates support her at the Democratic convention.
FRETTING ABOUT THE ECONOMY
The economy was big in Ohio Democratic voters’ minds— 59 per cent said it is the most important issue facing the country, more than said so in any of the other 25 Democratic primaries with exit polls this year. Clinton won among those Ohio voters most concerned about the economy. More than half of Rhode Island Democrats and nearly as many in Texas picked the economy as the top issue out of three choices. In Vermont, almost as many voters picked Iraq as selected the economy— the first Democratic contest this year in which Iraq was considered about as important as the economy.
WHO INSPIRES YOU?
Four in 10 Clinton voters in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island said Obama inspires them about the future of the country. Sixty-two per cent of Clinton supporters in Vermont gave Obama kudos for being inspirational. Obama voters were much less likely to call Clinton inspirational— about a quarter of them said that across the four states.