Clockwork challenge

There were no surprises in US President Barack Obama’s speech on Wednesday defining the scale and scope of American troop withdrawals from Afghanistan starting next month. In the new form of American political communication,the broad outline of the president’s speech was shared with media outlets before it was formally delivered. That Obama was going to reject advice from the military and civilian leadership of the Pentagon for a small and slow withdrawal was known. What we have now are the specific numbers and a timeline from him for a significant and speedy reduction of the US military footprint in Afghanistan. Ten thousand troops will be out of Afghanistan this year and another 20,000 or so by September next year,thereby reversing the surge of 30,000 troops ordered by Obama in December 2009. He now promises to end the US combat role in Afghanistan by 2014. After that the security of Afghanistan will be the responsibility of its armed forces.

It is never easy for a president of the US,especially a Democrat like Obama,to be seen as walking away from a war. Obama’s task had become somewhat easier thanks to the rapid evolution of the popular American perceptions of the war in Afghanistan. American weariness with the war,the longest in US history,has been palpable and set the stage for the president’s decisions. While there have been many suggesting that Obama stay the course in Afghanistan until the country is stabilised,others have insisted that the US cannot prevail in Afghanistan and must look for the exits now. This division,which has enveloped both the Democrats and the Republicans,allowed Obama to occupy the middle ground and unveil what he called a “responsible approach” to ending the war in Afghanistan. The bold raid and the killing of Osama bin Laden deep inside Pakistan last month allowed Obama to claim that he is leaving Afghanistan from a position of strength and after achieving US goals there.

As India ponders the consequences of Obama’s decision,it can learn one immediate lesson. Unlike Obama,who set aside the recommendations of the military establishment and has taken political responsibility in ordering the surge as well as the exit,the UPA government has shown little political will to lead on defence issues. As the US retreats from Afghanistan over the next three and a half years and the new turbulence on our north-western frontiers begins to test India’s strategic resolve,the UPA government can no longer duck major defence and national security decisions.