Past experience has shown that political agreements for a hand-over of power have always favoured the first incumbent. More often than not, the power transfer has never actually happened. Karnataka saw one such agreement between the Janata Dal (S) and BJP last year. It involved a sharing of the chief minister’s position for 20 months each. The 20 months allotted to the JD(S) come to an end in early October when the BJP’s tryst with chief ministership is scheduled to begin. All indications suggest an excruciating wait for the party to be anointed and agonising heartburn in the party that has to give up the leadership position in the government.

Of course, all the right political noises were made by both parties throughout this ‘marriage of mutual convenience’. To begin with, the BJP conceded leadership to the ‘junior partner’, as this seemed to be the only feasible strategy to dislodge the Congress from power. It was also willing to tolerate voices of dissent from within the JD(S) as long as the chief minister himself did not lend them his support. The JD(S) on its part, reiterated that it would not let down its coalition partner when the time came for the switch. The BJP was easier to ‘break bread’ with, it said, compared to its erstwhile coalition partner, the Congress.

But all this seems to be changing as ‘D’ day in October draws near. The discord is becoming increasingly visible. The BJP is palpably nervous; the party is watching every action and statement of the JD(S). The voting trend in Karnataka in the recent presidential polls is a clear indication that something unfriendly to the BJP is brewing in the JD(S) camp.

... contd.