Column : Davos delirium

The macroeconomic picture in the US is looking better in terms of unemployment and there are even some signs of growth. The UK is expecting a triple-dip recession and yet unemployment was down in the last quarter. Real wages are going down; this is a classic market-led recovery. It will take its own time to perk up. There is no such movement in the eurozone. The IMF has just revised its growth forecast for 2013 and 2014 downwards by 0.1% ( as if any economic statistics is accurate within such a small margin!). The emerging economies are also on a similar track, though with a higher growth rate. China seems to have come out with a near-8% growth rate for 2012 and chances are of the same again. India has to do better in 2013 than it did in 2012, but that depends crucially on the Budget being able to cut the deficit.

It may all happen but somehow I doubt it.

The author is a prominent economist and Labour peer

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