If the delicate talks with the Maoists, the Lankan peace process and the political wrangling in Bangladesh were not enough, now Maldives is growing to more than a blip on India’s neighbourhood radar ahead of a massive protest rally on November 10 against the Maumoon Abdul Gayoom government.

The government has called it an illegal attempt by main Opposition Maldives Democratic Party (MDP) to “violently overthrow the (Gayoom) government.”

Tension escalated today as reports came in that two Maldives Coastguard ships followed a vessel reportedly carrying 54 MDP supporters and threatened to sink it. One of the Coastguard ships, these reports said, was NSS Huravee gifted recently by India when External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, then Defence Minister, visited Maldives on April 15.

Sources said New Delhi has made it clear that it would like to see the Gayoom regime implement political reforms — this includes a new Constitution which paves the way for multi-party democracy — without disturbing “peace and stability.” In case the November 10 demonstration turns violent, sources said, New Delhi could see this as a “threat to peace.”

At the same time, India is cautious not to be seen as interfering in Male’s internal affairs.

It’s a difficult balancing task given China’s increasing efforts to extend influence in the Indian Ocean through better ties with Maldives. There have been reports of China pushing to set up a base in Maldives.

The Gayoom government has “advised” its citizens of the “legal liablities” in case they support any activity to incite violence on November 10. It’s learnt that there have been nearly 30 detentions by now. There are allegations that the government is coming down hard on those supporting the planned demonstration. Two days ago, two foreign journalists were asked to leave the country after the government felt they were “actively canvassing support” for the rally.

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