Bharuch is the only non-reserved constituency in Gujarat that has elected tribal candidates six times in a row. Though tribals in the state have traditionally supported the Congress, in Bharuch it is the BJP that has emerged victorious since the last six elections.

The Congress’s last Muslim MP from this constituency, Ahmed Patel, was elected way back in 1984. The party’s present candidate, Aziz Tankarvi, is a Muslim, a poet, and a political novice. Ahmed Patel, a three-time MP from Bharuch, lost to BJP’s Chandu Deshmukh, a tribal from Rajpipla, when the BJP was spreading its base in central Gujarat in 1989-1991. Deskhmukh was elected four times in a row, and after his demise, Mansukh Vasava was elected twice on the BJP ticket.

The Congress’ chances have been spoilt by another tribal and JD(U) MLA, Chhotu Vasava. Called ‘Saheb’ by the tribals here, Chhotu had polled 1.11 lakh votes in 2004, when Congress’ Mohammed Fansiwala lost to BJP by 70,000 votes. Chhotu has the most criminal charges as a Lok Sabha candidate in Gujarat this time. “All the charges against me are politically-motivated, there is no proof,” he claims. Elected four consecutive times as Jhagadia MLA, Chhotu has been trying his luck for a Lok Sabha berth since the last three elections. Attempts by both the BJP and the Congress to co-opt or coerce Chhotu in political submission have failed.

While the BJP depends on the urban Hindu votes of Bharuch and Ankleshwar, the Congress hopes that delimitation will help it this time, as the party’s stronghold in neighbouring Vadodara are now included in this constituency. However, the Congress’s disadvantage remains in fielding a Muslim candidate every time.

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