The Indian Express with CNN-IBN and CNBC-TV18 also showed that if an election was still forced on the voters, the UPA need not worry. For, despite the first signs of anti-incumbency, the alliance would come back to power, just short of a majority but leaving the NDA far behind.

A state-wise break-up of the findings of the “mock mid-term poll”, conducted across the country by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (18,750 people were interviewed: 73 % rural, 45% women, 11% Muslims and 18% Dalits):

ANDHRA PRADESH

Anti-incumbency sets in

•A gradual decline in satisfaction with the performance of the state Government over the past 20 months

•The Congress vote share is falling

•The major beneficiary is the TDP, with its vote share going up by 18% in the past 8 months. While the Congress still enjoys a slender lead, the TDP is fast catching up

•The anger with the Congress hasn’t translated into any support for the BJP

ASSAM

Oppn divided, helps Cong

•A drop in the level of satisfaction with the UPA Government in the last 8 months

•Bigger fall in support for the state Government

•However, in the face of a divided Opposition, the Congress continues to lead in terms of vote share. Indeed, in the past few months, the Congress has gained slightly at the expense of the newly formed Muslim outfit AUDF, thanks to its rise among the Muslims

•As for the AGP, the Brindaban Goswami-led faction is doing better than the others

BIHAR

It’s advantage NDA, but tough contest possible

•Satisfaction with both the UPA Government at the Centre and the NDA Government in the state has been consistently very high through the last 20 months

•However in terms of vote share the picture has changed. The JD(U) has made steady and substantial gains in this period at the expense of its ally, the BJP

•The RJD is also crawling its way back, gaining some of its Muslim vote

•Overall, while the NDA may continue to maintain its lead over the UPA even in a Lok Sabha poll, the difference between the two alliances is likely to be lesser. If Paswan’s LJP joins hands with the RJD and the Congress, then it may be a tough fight between the UPA and the NDA

CHHATTISGARH

BJP halts its decline

•The state Government has been steadily losing support but, over the last few months, it has halted the decline

DELHI

Some respite for Cong

•From an unusually high level of satisfaction with the Congress Government and votes for it in January 2006, the figures declined rapidly in August 2006 and January 2007

•However, the September 2007 survey shows the Congress may have halted its decline

•Quietly but significantly, the BSP is making inroads into the Dalit base of the party

GUJARAT

Modi rules

•The satisfaction with the state Government shows no signs of a decline, with the BJP expected to do a little better in the coming Assembly elections than in a Lok Sabha poll

•The Congress, which made small gains between January 2006 and 2007, hasn’t been able to press its advantage. In the last 8 months, the BJP has made substantial gains and now the Congress trails both in the Assembly and the parliamentary elections by about 8 points

•Major losses for the Congress among the Patidars and upper OBCs. However, the party has gained among the tribals, despite Narendra Modi’s strenuous efforts to wean them away

•No dent in Modi’s popularity, with the CM ranking second only to Sonia Gandhi as a PM choice. A majority of the BJP voters want Modi to lead the party at the national level in a mid-term poll

HARYANA

Split Oppn benefits Cong

•Halfway through its term, the Congress has maintained its position. A majority of the voters are satisfied with the state Government

•While the INLD has gained marginally, the gap between the party and the Congress remains large as long as the INLD and the BJP are separate

•The BJP has registered no gains

•The BSP has made major gains in the last one year, particularly among Dalits

JHARKHAND

Edge for united UPA

•Satisfaction with the state Government fell sharply between January and August 2006, but has stabilised since. During this period, the Congress and the BJP made gains at the cost of the JMM

•Since the release of Shibu Soren, the JMM has recovered much of its lost ground, especially among the adivasis. The BJP has not lost much despite internal divisions

•If the JMM and the Congress stay together, they are clearly ahead of the NDA

KARNATAKA

BJP falls short of Cong

•The level of satisfaction with the state Government has risen steadily since January 2006 across different sections of society

•In the context of a Lok Sabha election, the BJP has gained between January 2006 and September 2007, especially by eating into the Dalit vote base of the Congress. But the Congress has stabilised since January this year and is likely to do better than the BJP in a Lok Sabha elections. The JD(S) would be a poor third

•But in a Vidhan Sabha election, the JD(S) would be a close second behind the Congress. The fortunes of the JD(S) have been fluctuating

•Compared to a Lok Sabha poll, the Congress would get much lesser votes among upper caste Dalits and tribals in a Vidhan Sabha election. The JD(S) support would be confined mainly to the OBCs in a Lok Sabha election, but it would get support across the rural population in a Vidhan Sabha poll

MADHYA PRADESH

Chouhan in the hot seat

•The UPA Government at the Centre has gained in popularity in the last few months, with the vote share of the Congress rising steadily. Now it is ahead of the BJP. Correspondingly, the popularity of the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP Government in the state has declined

•The BSP’s vote share has gone up significantly after the UP election, especially among the Dalits

MAHARASHTRA

UPA comfortably ahead

•No major change in political preferences in the state in the last one year. A slight drop in the popularity of the NCP and some loss for the Congress among the Muslims

•The BJP and the Shiv Sena remain way behind the Congress-NCP combine even if the NDA remains intact

ORISSA

NDA has a clear lead

•The Congress has not gained very much in the last two years and the BJD-BJP combine continues to enjoy a clear lead. The BJP has made significant gains among the tribals and in rural areas. CM Navin Patnaik continues to be popular

PUNJAB

NDA consolidates

•The Akali-BJP alliance has consolidated its position after the Assembly election victory, though people are also happy with the UPA Government at the Centre

•But the BSP has not managed to make much headway here even after the UP verdict

RAJASTHAN

BJP faces a rout

•The Congress enjoys a comfortable lead over the ruling BJP in the state. It has gained in strength over the past two years, as has the level of satisfaction with the UPA Government

•While the Congress has made some gains among the upper caste voters, the BSP has not made much gain here

TAMIL NADU

UPA gains since polls

•While the popularity of the UPA Government at the Centre has hit a plateau, the allies continue to gain here since their Assembly election victory. This is especially true for a Lok Sabha poll, with the Congress likely to garner a substantial number of Muslim votes

•The AIADMK has lost some base among peasant proprietors

UTTAR PRADESH

status quo

•Satisfaction with the new state Government as well as with the UPA Government at the Centre is high

•However, unlike the BSP, whose vote share reflects the popularity of the state Government, the Congress’s vote share does not reflect the rating of the Central Government. The support for the party in a Lok Sabha election was very high in the surveys before the Assembly polls, but has fallen following its dismal performance in the elections

•The BSP has not made any fresh gains among upper castes since the Assembly elections

•It is the BJP that has made some gains since then among the upper castes

•The SP has been stagnant ever since the elections. While there is consolidation among its Yadav votebank, it has suffered marginal losses among Muslims

WEST BENGAL

Left domination continues

•The Left Front has lost marginally since its sweep of the Assembly polls, despite some gains in urban areas. But these losses may not translate into significant loss of seats

•The Trinamool Congress (TMC) has made steady gains, including in rural areas and among Muslims

•The Congress has remained stagnant. On its own it is in no position to challenge the Left. A Congress-TMC combine can pose some challenge though it cannot quite match the LF