Earlier this month, The Indian Express reported that far from the heated debate in New Delhi over the possibility and outcome of a mid-term poll, most of the country was unaware of the nuclear deal and certainly didn’t want to face an election over it. A survey commissioned by

The Indian Express with CNN-IBN and CNBC-TV18 also showed that if an election was still forced on the voters, the UPA need not worry. For, despite the first signs of anti-incumbency, the alliance would come back to power, just short of a majority but leaving the NDA far behind.

A state-wise break-up of the findings of the “mock mid-term poll”, conducted across the country by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (18,750 people were interviewed: 73 % rural, 45% women, 11% Muslims and 18% Dalits):

ANDHRA PRADESH

Anti-incumbency sets in

•A gradual decline in satisfaction with the performance of the state Government over the past 20 months

•The Congress vote share is falling

•The major beneficiary is the TDP, with its vote share going up by 18% in the past 8 months. While the Congress still enjoys a slender lead, the TDP is fast catching up

•The anger with the Congress hasn’t translated into any support for the BJP

ASSAM

Oppn divided, helps Cong

•A drop in the level of satisfaction with the UPA Government in the last 8 months

... contd.