•Compared to a Lok Sabha poll, the Congress would get much lesser votes among upper caste Dalits and tribals in a Vidhan Sabha election. The JD(S) support would be confined mainly to the OBCs in a Lok Sabha election, but it would get support across the rural population in a Vidhan Sabha poll

MADHYA PRADESH

Chouhan in the hot seat

•The UPA Government at the Centre has gained in popularity in the last few months, with the vote share of the Congress rising steadily. Now it is ahead of the BJP. Correspondingly, the popularity of the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led BJP Government in the state has declined

•The BSP’s vote share has gone up significantly after the UP election, especially among the Dalits

MAHARASHTRA

UPA comfortably ahead

•No major change in political preferences in the state in the last one year. A slight drop in the popularity of the NCP and some loss for the Congress among the Muslims

•The BJP and the Shiv Sena remain way behind the Congress-NCP combine even if the NDA remains intact

ORISSA

NDA has a clear lead

•The Congress has not gained very much in the last two years and the BJD-BJP combine continues to enjoy a clear lead. The BJP has made significant gains among the tribals and in rural areas. CM Navin Patnaik continues to be popular

... contd.