Following the agitations, the Gurjjar community is represented by three broad factions. The group led by Col Kirori Singh Bainsla is with the BJP, another faction is with the Congress and then there is a rebel Gurjjar faction formed after the expulsion of powerful Gurjjar community leader, Prahalad Gunjal, from the BJP in 2007.

While Bainsla pledged support to the BJP following the passing of a bill in the state assembly granting special reservation to Gurjjars, the Congress has the support of Gurjjars in Dausa and surrounding areas under the leadership of Congress MP Sachin Pilot. Gunjal, denied a ticket from the Congress and BJP, aims to play spoiler for both national parties.

Gurjjars have a presence in constituencies across the state, but senior community leaders claim that the Gurjjar vote is decisive in close to 30 of 200 constituencies across nine districts including Jaipur, Tonk, Dausa, Karauli, Sawai Madhopur, Bharatpur, Dholpur and Boondi — in these constituencies, they number above 30,000. The Gurjjar vote completely influences seven constituencies where no candidate can win without the community’s support. The Gurjjar agitation has changed the electoral calculus for both national parties.

Between the Congress and BJP, close to 20 seats have been granted to Gurjjar candidates — the Congress has granted tickets to 11 Gurjjars, the BJP to nine. Incidentally, of the 11 Congress candidates, only one will contest against a BJP Gurjjar candidate. Neither party was prepared to set up a direct Gurjjar versus Gurjjar fight.

Senior Congress leaders believe that the severe police action against protestors will work in their favour. On a recent visit to Jaipur, senior leader Kapil Sibal said, “The BJP government here has been an oppressive regime.” Among the Congress’s Gurjjar’s candidates is Atar Singh Bhadana, who was expelled from the BJP alongwith Gunjal in 2007 for “anti-party activities”.

If the BJP is worried about the Congress candidates, it is not showing it. BJP vice president Arun Chaturvedi says, “Col. Bainsla, arguably the most powerful Gurjjar leader, is with the BJP and is satisfied with the party as we passed the bill granting reservation to Gurjjars. The bill is awaiting approval from the Rajasthan Governor.”

Col. Bainsla’s influence within the BJP became obvious after the BJP doled out tickets to three candidates that Bainsla had insisted upon. BJP leaders also believe Rajasthan Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje’s daughter-in-law, Niharika Singh, who is a Gurjjar, will play a role. “We wanted Madam Raje’s daughter-in-law to contest... However, she drew huge crowds when she addressed public meetings in Ajmer and Bhilwada,” says a Gurjjar leader.

Senior Gurjjar leaders say they are dissatisfied with the Congress’s selection of Gujjar candidates. Says one, “The BJP has given tickets to local Gurjjar leaders, while most of the Congress leaders are fighting in relatively new constituencies.” Congress candidate Rajendra Singh Biduri from Begu in Chittor district actually hails from New Delhi, while Bhadana, a sitting MLA from Bayana, will now fight from Nagar in Bharatpur district. But according to Sachin Pilot, Congress MP from Dausa, “Gurjjar-dominated seats in Congress areas were shuffled in the delimitation exercise”. The Congress, he says, has attempted to bring in new faces in these areas.

Meanwhile, Gunjal, after being denied a ticket from the Congress and BJP, is determined to play spoiler. “The BJP and Congress do not care for the community, only for votes. I am determined to thwart their efforts in as many constituencies as possible,” he says.