Congress coalition leading in election: Poll

A group of smaller political parties,including the Leftists,have formally launched a ‘Third Front’ in a bid to provide an alternative to the two main national coalitions.

On average,analysts said there was a 32 per cent chance a Congress-led alliance would win,but would need Left support to stay in power. They said there was a 27 per cent possibility the Congress would win without Leftist support.

Those polled said,on average,there was a 23 per cent chance of an NDA victory and only an 18 per cent possibility of a Third Front government.

Reuters surveyed 14 analysts from a variety of backgrounds,including universities,pollsters and banks,on Monday and Tuesday. The poll does not aim to be scientific but to give readers a snapshot of how some of the leading India analysts are thinking.

The following are the results of their replies. Reuters will repeat this survey on a weekly basis each Tuesday.

HOW MANY SEATS DO YOU THINK CONGRESS AND THE BJP WILL WIN?

CONGRESS Average 144 – Median 143

BJP Average 130 – Median 130

(There are 543 elected seats in Parliament)

2) ASSIGN PERCENTAGES TO THE FOLLOWING SCENARIOS:

a) A UPA-led government with communist support

Average 32 pct Median 30 pct

b) A UPA-led government without communist support

Average 27 pct Median 28 pct

c) An NDA-led government

Average 23 pct Median 25 pct

d) A Third Front-led coalition

Average 18 pct Median10 pct

3) Who will be the next Prime Minister of India?

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh – 12 choices

Pranab Mukherjee — 1

Mayawati 1

L.K. Advani (BJP leader) – 0

Those polled were:

1) Amulya Ganguli,independent analyst;

2) Mahesh Rangarajan,independent analyst;

3) Phani Sekhar,fund manager,Angel Broking;

4) T K Bhaumik,chief economist,JK Organisation;

5) Alastair Newton,political analyst,Nomura Securities;

6) Rupa Rege Nitsure,Chief economist,Bank of Baroda,Mumbai;

7) Pran Chopra,Independent political commentator;

8) D H Pai Panandikar,The RPG Foundation;

9) Dr N Bhaskara Rao,Centre for Media Studies;

10) Professor SUDHA PAI,Jawahar Lal Nehru University;

11) Seema Desai,Eurasia Group; 12) Vinod Mehta,Editor-in Chief,Outlook Magazine;

13) V Anantha Nageswaran,Chief Investment Officer,Asia Pacific,Julius Baer;

14) Yashwant Deshmukh,Head of C-Voter Polling Agency.