There was one figure that was lost in the cheerful cacophony of Sonia Gandhi’s unprecedented victory gathering in Rae Bareli last month, and it is this figure that conveys the realistic facts of the Congress in Uttar Pradesh. The polling percentage was 42. Yes, the by-election gave Gandhi an unparalleled victory margin, it gained Rahul Gandhi a bigger political profile and it provided the dwindling Congress party apparatus some stabilising support. But there’s no escaping the fact that the percentage was lower than it was last time, reflecting the inability of the organisational network to mobilise voters.

If it was 42 in Rae Bareli when the party’s focus was only Rae Bareli, there is little that has happened since the 2002 Uttar Prasdesh assembly elections to suggest that it would be more when the task is spread over 400 constituencies in February 2007. The only change is that from its 25 MLAs in 2002, the Congress now stands reduced to 16, the rest having deserted it for Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party. And last heard, half of these 16 MLAs are in touch with the SP and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party.

Sonia Gandhi has often exhorted the party in her Rae Bareli rallies with the words, “Uttar Pradesh mein mahaul badlega (prospects will change in UP)”. But the Congress first needs to organise its own people and consolidate a network which should not only be working but seen to be working. The Congress in Uttar Pradesh is an entity that revives to a semblance of activity only during elections. All all other times the party remains conspicuous by its absolute absence.

... contd.