Coping without Chavez

This lack of urgency is because Chavez's influence in the region was waning without US effort and before Chavez became ill. ALBA, for all the initial hype, has not emerged as a strong voice against the US and has held little appeal for most of the region. Chavez's allies, such as Cristina Fernandez of Argentina, are struggling with their own economic problems and declining popularity. Other one-time or possible allies, like the FLMN in El Salvador or Ollanta Humala in Peru, have explicitly rejected ALBA and its oppositional tone. Probably the biggest beneficiary in the region of Venezuela post-Chavez is Brazil. Brazil's record of solid growth with strong social gains is the compelling alternative to Chavez's development model of oil-revenue financed, macroeconomically unstable, poor economic performance. Brazil quietly invested in increased presence and influence across the region, avoiding open disputes with Venezuela. Post-Chavez Venezuela is likely to be even less appealing as a model for emulation. Again, this outcome would be welcome for the US, which has come to see Brazil as the key interlocutor in the Americas. Brazil has important policy and philosophical differences with the US, but relations are certainly easier. Venezuela has already seen its influence on the decline in the region, offset by rising Brazilian leadership. A post-Chavez Venezuela is likely to accelerate that trend.

Peter Kingstone is professor, co-director at the Institute for International Development at King's College, London, express@expressindia.com

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