Opinion Countdown’s begun

A very positive development of the Anna Hazare campaign,vastly aided by near-devotional TV coverage of them as sword-bearers of several ultimate truths,is its eventual willingness to engage with politics. By locking their next step in with the fate of states going to polls next,important ones being Uttar Pradesh,Punjab and Uttarakhand,and deciding to lead campaigns about issues they see as central to “fixing” India’s problems,it would be a relief that Anna Hazare is doing finally what Ram Manohar Lohia,Jayaprakash Narayan and V.P. Singh had done early in their campaigns — openly declare that it is a “moral”,outraged cry against what they see as callousness and people-insensitive acts of a government — that is,openly set themselves up as an anti-government movement,something that other party-driven politics can organise itself around.

Advani’s sixth yatra has,of course,rattled his supporters,believers and the more agnostic among us. By seeking to restage a trick which has proved effective in the past,but with rapidly diminishing returns,it has left most people bemused. But the yatra,if it is a Bhrashtaachaar Virodhi Yatra,would no doubt force the BJP to tease out the main plank of the largest opposition party. The party — whose senior leaders are caught and indicted for “scams” in Karnataka,which has been forced to change a chief minister in Uttarakhand,and which is battling the appointment of a Lokayukta in Gujarat — is struggling to explain to even a lapsed BJP voter,who may have defected to the Congress in 2009,why she should revert to the BJP. Can the yatra help in laying out the issues and party’s arguments on the table?

As far as the ruling Congress goes,the going is a little more unexciting and tedious,as all guns seem directed at them. But what is clear is that,as they have rushed the land acquisition bill and hastened moves on the NAC draft of the communal violence bill,they too are tooling themselves to get a better sense of who their voter is. While constantly saying that a record number of their MPs and supporters are in jail,that they are serious about handling graft cases as such action would not have been possible without government support,Congress leaders hope to send out an important signal. By being seen to deliver to core constituents,by adding to entitlements,appearing fair and progressive,they hope to take the edge off the outrage over “scams” and active courts. That is what can be read about their strategy at this point,since appearing to stare down a political opposition (as they did in the winter session of Parliament) did not prove effective,nor did alternate and brusque strategies of cosying up to and then turning aggressive on their newer “civil society” foes.

There is,crucially,at the moment a large political space occupied by chief ministers and parties neither with the Congress nor the BJP. For Mayawati,J. Jayalalithaa and Naveen Patnaik,the strategy of acting local and remaining unpredictable seems to be paying off (as it does for some other chief ministers in the NDA and the UPA,too,like Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee). There is nothing holding this fairly disparate set of regional forces together,to formally signal a Fourth Front,but there is a clear line each wants to draw vis-a-vis larger political parties. Each is keen to show that s/he is not a pushover,while constantly evaluating the fluctuating fortunes of the alliance that’s wooing them.

It might be useful to recall that just after the 2009 elections,several triumphant Congressmen — elated at crossing the 200-seat mark — had declared how the next elections would be all about pulling the Grand Old Party over the majority mark by itself,given the shrunken space of the BJP and the Left. But just over two years and several self-goals later,the Congress appears less confident of retaining the urban centres,many of them being traditional BJP bases that had tilted toward the UPA in 2004 and 2009. It is this urban voter,importantly,who is driving the 24×7 outrage over rising prices,national security and corruption.

Over time,different issues have become faultlines along which political groups and those aspiring for power organise themselves. If the Congress is keen on ensuring that a secular and progressive agenda bolstered by entitlement schemes separates it from the BJP,the BJP is hoping it can blunt that advantage by talking of itself as the bearer of “clean” governance — or at the least a changed cast of characters to counter the suspicion of minorities and Dalits. Of course,all of this is sought to be fortified by an underlying “cultural nationalism” focused on the other side of Narendra Modi,with his post-2002 avatar showcased as a “model chief minister”.

All in all,it’s all drawing up a rough guide to the next elections and an enormous space for several assertive if unpredictable regional leaders in the middle,happy to reveal themselves only when they believe revelations must be made. All this,right in the middle of the term of what was initially seen as a comfortably elected government,does make for interesting times.

seema.chishti@expressindia.com