What has made this possible? Three things have contributed. First, the calculated risk the LF took in deserting the UPA altered the last four years’ political equations. Without any ambition about national-level power for itself, and no possibility of winning a national mandate, the Left has always nurtured the ambition of reigning from behind the scenes and positioning itself as the nucleus of non-Congress, non-BJP forces — the classic “third force” (or is it the second force?). So long as it supported the UPA, the LF only hurt the NDA. The moment it cut itself loose from the UPA, it went back to that role it has sought for itself throughout the last decade of the twentieth century.

Second, the dramatic rise of Mayawati in UP must have sent warning signals to all those parties and leaders nursing ambitions of gaining by coalition politics. Should Mayawati wrest the initiative in this election, the opportunities for many a prime ministerial candidate will shrink. Her victory in UP also indicated that not joining any pre-existing alliance could create its own dividends.

Third, and perhaps most significant, the latest developments have yet again brought into sharp focus the lack of clear vision in the Congress. It is not just a question of smart electoral strategy. That is part of it, but more than that, the Congress has refused to redefine itself — and hence been trapped by its own inflated self-image. In 2004, the Congress regained power almost providentially; the Vajpayee government was not unpopular, and yet many factors led to its undoing. At that moment the Congress had two options: it could have redefined itself like New Labour, as advised by some, or it could have fashioned an intelligent compromise learnt from the politics of the post-Mandal era. The party did neither. It simply trudged along expecting that its star will rise with the rising “son”. The collapse of the “party with a difference”, and the refusal of the Congress to redefine itself, thus open up the possibility of the third phase of coalition politics in a span of two decades.

... contd.