Also, the much hyped threats of withdrawal of support to the Modi-led BJP by the coastal Kolis and Brahmins are not supported by the survey data. Actually, it is the tribal voters who have changed their party preference in a big way. In the 2002 assembly poll, 34 per cent tribals voted for the BJP as against 49 per cent for the Congress. In the 2004 LS poll, 48 per cent tribals voted for the BJP as against 46 per cent for the Congress. The present survey shows that the tribal support to BJP has slid, as only 27 per cent will vote for the BJP and 69 per cent for the Congress.

The OBC vote share of the BJP which slipped from 57 per cent in 2002 to 40 per cent in 2004 has been retrieved by the BJP and it stands today at 60 per cent. The Dalit, Bania, Rajput and Muslim vote shares are withheld from the analysis due to their small numbers.

This political sociology of Gujarat voters’ preferences places the BJP in a comfortable position. The rebellion, factionalism, and leadership crisis in the BJP are apparently only skin deep. The overall pre-poll picture shows that while the Congress’s total vote share has marginally declined from 45 per cent in 2004 to 43 per cent now in 2007, the BJP has raced ahead from 47 per cent in 2004 to 54 per cent now. The anti-BJP and anti-Modi mood, it seems, is superficial.

... contd.