Opinion Days before secession

Peace in Sudan has always been elusive. For two decades,the North and the South were involved in a bitter civil war. An end to hostilities came about through the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA),a deal brokered between the warring factions by Washington. A key component of the CPA was a referendum in which the South would vote “yes” or “no” for secession. The referendum held in January this year saw an overwhelming majority vote for an independent South. The new state will come into being in less than three weeks — on July 9. Now,violence has flared up over points the CPA did not address,chief among them being the status of disputed territories,which include Abyei and South Kordofan.

Drawing a line in the sand is never going to be easy,especially when oil is at stake. In Sudan,75 per cent of oil fields lie in the South. Abyei is the stretch of land where Arabia touches Africa,nomadic Muslim Arab herders meeting African Christian cattle herders,and the oil fields start. Both sides,the North and the South,stake claim to the territory. In 2005,when the CPA was conceptualised,Abyei too was supposed to have a referendum but the potential of violence over the vote resulted in Abyei being brushed under the carpet.

Now there are reports of Bashir attempting to tilt the demographics of Abyei. Reports from the UN indicate forced migration of Muslim herders,the Misseriya,into the region. On May 21,Bashir’s government moved troops towards Abyei. The Southern rebels attacked and in response the Northern army razed villages. The UN has detailed the laying of mines in the region by the Northern army.

The fight now is between the rebels and the North. The catalyst was the official Northern announcement of a potential annexation of two other disputed territories — the Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile regions. Armies from these regions had once fought the government in Khartoum alongside the Southerners and they are now clamouring for freedoms.

Like Abyei,neighbouring Kordofan and its Nuban population too have their status unanswered. They lie within the boundaries of Arab-dominated Northern Sudan but their people are Christians and once allies in the war against the South. The UN has reported acts of genocide against the Nuban people,but the Nubans are no strangers to it; only their story never became too popular.

Even before Darfur happened,the Sudanese government in Khartoum had waged a war against South Kordofan in the 1980s and 1990s. Thousands of Nubans were brandished into “peace camps”,where they were forced to convert to Islam,but theirs is a forgotten story. The Nubans have since resisted advances made by Khartoum.

As the date for the formal recognition to South Sudan approaches,the Nubans find themselves in a precarious position: they are a part of North Sudan,a land they once fought with but where they are ethnically outnumbered and religiously marginalised. Calls from the government in Khartoum for South Kordofan to disarm have been ignored. The possibility of unity between Nubans and Khartoum is very low.

These areas are victims of unresolved issues of the partition. Under the rules mandated by the CPA,both areas should have had a referendum following consultations with local people,but this did not materialise.

Calls from the US,the UN and Europe for a cessation of hostilities have been ignored by Bashir. In South Kordofan,echoes of Darfur resonate: Ahmed Haroun,indicted for crimes against humanity and who allegedly orchestrated many of Darfur’s murders,has been elected as governor of South Kordofan.

The delineation of this strip of land remains unanswered,as does the sharing of oil revenue and citizenship and once again the North and South stand divided and the road ahead threatens civil war.

express@expressindia.com