Is there a common thread?

Yes, in the sense that Balochs remain fearful of being marginalised in their own land. From the beginning, they have resented their minuscule representation in government jobs and Islamabad’s refusal to allow greater autonomy. The current phase of tension began in January 2005 after the rape of a doctor by soldiers in Sui. Inaction against the guilty sparked off attacks on natural gas installations, a sign of the Balochs’ estrangement from development.

Balochistan — with four per cent of Pakistan’s population and 43 per cent of its land mass, according to figures in a recent Carnegie paper by Pakistan scholar Frederic Grare, holds great natural resources and strategic significance. Besides mineral wealth, it supplies more than 40 per cent of the gas consumed by Pakistan. Balochs have been demanding higher royalties and a say in how their energy reserves are utilised. (Grare cites a government study that by 2012 the gas deposits being exploited will run out.)

Allied to this is resentment that Balochs do not obtain jobs in other development projects, like the Gwadar deep-sea port being built with Chinese assistance, the three new cantonment towns being created and the Ormara naval base on the Makran base projected to become Pakistan’s second largest naval installation.

What next?

Writes Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid: “By killing Bugti, the president (General Pervez Musharraf) has earned the permanent enmity of not just the Baloch rebels but the wider Baloch population who may not believe in taking up arms, but are still frustrated with Islamabad for its failure to develop the province.”

... contd.