Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, president of PML-Q, has been calling for emergency rule since June in the hope of forestalling the loss of power by his faction. Musharraf’s civilian allies are the ones who would have been the biggest losers in any transition to democracy. They are incapable of winning a free and fair election and have resented the prospect of any arrangement that allows Benazir Bhutto to fight, and beat, them at the polls.

For her part, the Pakistan Peoples Party leader pointed out that Musharraf’s decision to purge the Supreme Court while keeping the parliament, provincial legislatures and ministries in their position was rather odd. “The current assemblies’ remaining intact does not mean anything because the legislation they pass is meaningless,” she said. “The constitution under which they were created has itself been suspended.”

But for Musharraf the weakness of his argument hardly matters. His actions reflect the calculation that he can get away with anything as long as the army remains behind him.

Musharraf seems to reckon that the international community would not go beyond ritual condemnation of his actions. The United States would not impose sanctions or suspension of aid because that might impair Pakistani participation in the global war on terror. But Musharraf’s estimation might not be one hundred percent accurate.

The US could reach the conclusion that Musharraf is too distracted with domestic politics to play an effective role in fighting terrorism any longer. The more Musharraf has to repress critics and political opponents at home, the less Pakistan will be able to fight terrorism. After all, when troops have to be deployed to detain Supreme Court judges, lawyers and politicians, there are fewer troops available to fight terrorists.

... contd.